Wow, can’t believe it’s been over a month with this Ukraine bullshit. I’m glad I wrote down my predictions for what would end up happening. Seems like I was partially correct, partially wrong.
I’m pretty shocked that Russia was able to annex Crimea seemingly without any sort of repercussions. Sure there are a few economic penalties, but pretty paltry for what they gained. Overall, though, I think Russia has lost more than it has gained. Its standing in the world has been severely tarnished and as a real positive sidenote, I can imagine this conflict leading to even more impetus for getting off our addiction for gas and oil. Pretty much anyone we buy our fuel from is our enemy. It’s getting ridiculous to be funding our enemies.
So, prediction time. This is where being a fan of history really gets exciting, watching history happen in front of us. When you study history often and long enough, you start to see things as they’re happening from a future vantage point. I can already see where this is lining up in the long story of humanity. But, anyway. Crimea is now part of Russia and I can’t see that ever going back to Ukraine unless A) a war was fought, defeating Russia B) years from now a much more sympathetic and reasonable government takes over in Russia C) Russia installs a Pro-Russian government in Ukraine and then gives it back to them. I don’t really see any of those happening, so get used to the fact that Crimea is part of Russia. Congrats, your centuries old obsession is yours once again.
So, what’s left to predict? Well, the same playbook that was used to get Crimea seems to be happening in eastern Ukraine. In my original post I posited that Ukraine could end up becoming two separate countries or the eastern half being absorbed into Russia. It seems like Russia is doing everything within its power to get the eastern part of Ukraine into their country. They are inciting bogus incidents in the hopes that the Ukrainians will react and create just cause for a Russian intervention. It’s amazing the amount of restraint that Ukraine has shown in not doing anything to spark a real war. I really wonder how the people of Ukraine feel about all this. Their country is being encroached upon by the Russians, it must be very demoralizing and violating feeling.
As for what I think will happen…I really sincerely hope that this does not erupt into an actual conflict. Although, if it did, I honestly think that the rest of the world would stay out of it. No one really wants or is interested in getting embroiled in another conflict. I think the Russians know this and feel confident that they can take the eastern part of Ukraine without much resistance. They would easily defeat Ukrainian forces and then probably play into the fact that the West did nothing to help them, in order to draw them closer. Again, I hope this does not happen, but it seems almost inevitable at this point. Russia, or Putin more accurately, are deadset on gaining more of Ukraine. I hesitate to think they’d take all of it, but I don’t think they’re done carving it up. The Russians are pretty confident that there won’t be military repercussions against them from the rest of the world and even more confident that there won’t be economic repercussions because they know that that would hurt the West as well as Russia at the same time. Our hands are pretty much tied in this situation and I think Russia will be able to do whatever it wants. The real question is more what will they do after they get what they want here? And can we stand idly by as they do the same thing to other neighbors?