I love making predictions. It’s really cool to go back and look at them. There’s really no way to go back to the mindset you were in after the fact. When I write it down I can know without a doubt how I was thinking and what I thought would happen before it happened. I’d like to try to predict this presidential election. I should have done it earlier, but I can say that even before the candidates were announced I’ve just assumed that Hillary would become president. Basically ever since Barack got reelected in 2012 I’ve assumed Hillary would be next. I have to be honest, I still believe she will be President, although I have to admit that I’m not as sure as I was before. I’ll also say that I absolutely did not believe for a second that Donald Trump would become the Republican nominee. That’s just insane.
Now, here we are towards the end of May in 2016, Trump has not officially been declared the Republican nominee but that’s basically a foregone conclusion unless something monumental happens between now and July when they have their convention. On the other side of things you have Hillary still fighting it out with Bernie. Hillary has all but wrapped up the nominee at this point. It’s blatantly obvious that the DNC wants Hillary as their nominee. They’ve done everything in their power to make this election as difficult as possible for Bernie and yet he’s still giving her hell. I’d like to believe that Bernie could still somehow become the nominee but that’s seeming less and less likely. Certainly does not seem like he would become the nominee by the primary voting process. The only way he could win the nomination at this point pretty much is through a contested convention. While not technically eliminated as a possibility, the math of it is basically impossible. He’d probably have to win the rest of the primaries by 70% of the votes or something incredible like that. The last big contest is California where the most delegates of any state are up for grabs. My prediction for that contest is Hillary will win with something like 52% of the votes, which has been the pattern, basically, thus far. That will seal the deal. That primary is the first week of June.
So, here’s my prediction: Hillary will win the Democratic party’s nomination through the primary process, receiving the required number of delegates (I also predict that after this election a lot of information about corruption will come out in regards to voter suppression, disqualified ballots, etc. Hopefully this will lead to some voter reforms). The interesting part about predicting this comes after she gets the required delegates. There are a few things that could play out, first off Hillary is embroiled in a ton of scandals right now. As Trump increases the pressure on his competition he will bring more and more of this to light and the media will start to have to acknowledge it instead of sweeping it under the rug, as it’s been doing. If enough of this comes to light, and Bernie has a close enough delegate count, it could make the Democratic Convention very interesting, as Bernie will be able to make a very strong case against Hillary and why he would be a much better opponent to Trump. Trump will absolutely eviscerate Hillary in debates and just through Twitter and the media as he’s been doing. He has so much content on Hillary, he hasn’t even gotten started destroying her. Although I did say I think Hillary will become President, it scares me a lot to leave it up to her to be the one in the way of stopping Donald. I think there are a TON of Independents and even Republicans who would prefer Bernie over Hillary OR Donald and if given the options of those two, they are going to go third party or just vote for Trump. It’ll be way too close for comfort if Hillary is the nominee.
Another potential (and frightening) outcome is that if Bernie is not the Democratic nominee he will run as a third party candidate. Bernie really has no affiliation with the Democratic party, he only became a Democrat to run for president and after the way the DNC has been treating him, I’m sure he has even less respect for them. However, Bernie, probably more than anyone, fears a Trump presidency. This election has really come down to this: people either desperately want to stop Trump from becoming president or desperately want to stop Hillary. I truly believe and hope that there are more people supporting these candidates out of fear of the other guy than an actual affinity for either one of them.
It’s really sad to think that America will be voting for a President out of fear of someone else being President, rather than voting for someone they actually like and feel like would be good for this country. If Bernie runs as a third party candidate it basically will hand the office to Trump and Trump knows this, which is why he has been tweeting about how “unfairly” Bernie is being treated by the DNC and encouraging him to run as a third party candidate. Taken on face value you might almost begin to believe that Donald likes Bernie, but that’s bullshit, he just wants Bernie to split the Democratic vote.
It’s an incredibly tricky and delicate situation and so much hangs in the balance. If given the choice of Donald or Hillary I will vote for Jill Stein, but I will say that I’d much rather have Hillary than Donald. I believe Hillary will at least try to keep up appearances and basically maintain the status quo. I also believe that she will grant a few token gestures to appease all those that are starting to get so riled up. At some point the wealthy elite have to recognize that their policies are creating a very unstable system that will eventually harm themselves, that is when they will start giving a little to us to keep themselves safe. The powers at be are terrified, they already lost one of the major parties and they’re struggling to keep the other party. They know that they need to do something or else the next election cycle can really see a clean wipe of all the Washington insiders from politics and ergo a dissolution of the power being wielded by the wealthy elite and corporate powers that be. Therefore, if Hillary becomes president I believe you’ll see the following: a restructuring of student loan debts and a complete overhaul of the student loan system, increasing of federal minimum wage, more regulations and oversight on the healthcare system and their price gauging, creating more “green” jobs and a move toward (not a full change, that would anger her fossil fuel constituents/patrons) renewable energy sources, a strong push toward more equality for women and protection of women’s health and reproductive rights (Planned Parenthood funding), and most likely a continuation of the Obama doctrine of limited involvement in foreign military interventions. I’m a pragmatist, so I’ll be happy to get those changes, even though I know they are just a ruse to keep me appeased and I know that they are nowhere near as far as they should or could go. I’d MUCH rather have that than having Trump come in and absolutely destroy politics, head us back in all the wrong directions and just create an even more divisive atmosphere in this country.
Let’s toe the line for now and we will eventually get the progressive president we want and need. I’d rather maintain the shitty situation we have now than absolutely decimate it and have to start over from scratch. Change comes in slow waves, not one giant cataclysmic event (usually). It’s abundantly obvious that there is a sea change happening in this country, the final vestiges of the white Christian elite are fading and they know it, they’re like an injured wild animal, lashing out violently and erratically as they’re in their death throes. We slowly keep getting more and more of our progressive, liberal agenda and that will continue. The demographics themselves of this country are changing drastically, and with them, so are the ideals and morals of the people of this country. We may not get what we want in 2016, but if our only choices are complete destruction, or a slight improvement, let’s go with the slight improvement and go from there the next chance we have. Also, remember, the president isn’t the end all be all of American politics. Just as important, if not more so, are the midterm elections where we can finally have the chance to change the face of our inept, corrupt Congress. Hopefully, if anything, this election season has created a sense of civic duty in Americans and there will actually be strong turnouts for elections of local officials and congressmen. Up until now mostly geriatric conservatives have been voting in midterm elections, and that is why we end up with a conservative controlled Congress when the actual makeup of this country is far from it. Also, most importantly, is to work hard to ensure that as MANY Americans are possible are not only eligible to vote, but have the opportunity to vote. When we get as close to 100% voter turnout as we can, then, and only then, will we have a government that is actually representative of the people. The best cure to solving the ails of our political system is by involving as many Americans as possible in the process. The majority is the only chance we have in instituting policies that finally benefit the majority. We cannot rely on businessmen, career politicians and super wealthy to act in our best interests. As voter turnouts have diminished, so too have policies reflecting the will of the people.
In summation, Hillary Clinton will be our next president, it’ll be mediocre, people will be clamoring to get the next president elected, but most likely she’ll have two terms, because that’s just how people function these days. 2024 is the year we take back America! I’ll be sitting around doing not much of anything until then. Let’s do it.